Bilateral Debt Switching dalam Pengelolaan Risiko Refinancing Utang Pemerintah Indonesia

Penulis

  • Dewinta Iga Wardani PKN STAN , Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN
  • Christine Agapeni Bangun Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN
  • Muhammad Afwandi Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN
  • Gilang Wahyu Wicaksono Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN
  • Zalfa Ayeisha Syahniar Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58812/jakws.v5i03.3926

Kata Kunci:

Bilateral Debt Switching, Pengelolaan Utang Pemerintah, Risiko Refinancing, Keberlanjutan Fiskal, Indonesia

Abstrak

Peningkatan kebutuhan pembiayaan pemerintah Indonesia menyebabkan pengelolaan utang menjadi aspek penting dalam menjaga keberlanjutan fiskal. Tantangan utama dalam pengelolaan utang tidak hanya berkaitan dengan besarnya jumlah utang, tetapi juga kemampuan pemerintah dalam mengendalikan risiko portofolio, khususnya risiko pembiayaan kembali (refinancing risk) akibat konsentrasi jatuh tempo Surat Berharga Negara (SBN). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peran bilateral debt switching sebagai strategi pengelolaan risiko refinancing utang pemerintah Indonesia serta kaitannya dengan keberlanjutan fiskal. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kajian literatur (literature review) dengan pendekatan deskriptif kualitatif melalui analisis isi (content analysis) terhadap berbagai sumber berupa artikel ilmiah, laporan pemerintah, dan publikasi lembaga internasional yang relevan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa bilateral debt switching merupakan instrumen liability management yang dapat membantu memperbaiki struktur jatuh tempo utang dan mengurangi tekanan pembiayaan kembali tanpa mengurangi nilai nominal utang secara langsung. Kebaruan penelitian ini terletak pada analisis integratif mengenai hubungan antara bilateral debt switching, risiko portofolio utang, dan kesinambungan fiskal Indonesia. Penelitian ini memberikan implikasi bahwa strategi pengelolaan utang perlu diarahkan pada pendekatan berbasis risiko portofolio dengan tetap menjaga transparansi, kredibilitas kebijakan fiskal, dan koordinasi antara pemerintah serta Bank Indonesia.

Referensi

Afonso, A., Alves, J., Matvejevs, O., & Tkacevs, O. (2026). Impact of Sovereign Debt Maturity on Fiscal Sustainability. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.70193

Aguiar, M., Amador, M., Hopenhayn, H., & Werning, I. (2019). Take the short route: equilibrium default and debt maturity. Econometrica, 87(2), 423–462. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14806

Anugrahaeni, P. (2017). Kajian Ekonomi & Keuangan Analysis of Indonesian Sovereign Green Bond and Green Sukuk Initiatives. Kajian Ekonomi Da Keuangan, 1(1), 1–24.

Bacchetta, P., Perazzi, E., & Wincoop, E. Van. (2017). Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: What Can Monetary Policy Do? Journal of International Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.11.004

Basorudin, M. (2019). Analisis Kesinambungan Fiskal Indonesia Pasca Krisis Ekonomi. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 17(December), 59–70.

Bianchi, B. J., Hatchondo, J. C., & Martinez, L. (2018). International Reserves and Rollover Risk. American Economic Review, 108(9), 2629–2670.

Blanchard, O., Chouraqui, J.-C., P.Hageman, R., & Sartor, N. (n.d.). The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question.

Blommestein, H. J., & Elmadag, M. E. (n.d.). OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Buyback and Exchange Operations : Policies , Procedures and Practices among OECD Public Debt Managers. 5.

Bocola, B. L., & Dovis, A. (2019). Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises : A Quantitative Analysis. American Economic Review, 109(12), 4343–4377.

Bohn, H. (1998). The behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits. Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Bousselmi, W., Peia, O., & Vranceanu, R. (2026). Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Rollover and insolvency risk in sovereign debt pricing : An experimental study. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 185(February), 105295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2026.105295

Broner, F. A., Lorenzoni, G., & Schmukler, S. L. (2013). Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term? Journal of the European Economic Association, 11, 67–100. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01094.x

Budiantoro, R. A., Fauzi, A. S., & Rachman, M. A. (2026). Utang Pemerintah: Amankah Utang Indonesia Saat Ini? Jurnal Oportunitas Ekonomi Pembangunan, 5(1), 125–147. https://doi.org/10.29303/oportunitas.v5i1.2892

Cahyadin, M., Sarmidi, T., Khalid, N., & Law, S. H. (2023). Public Debt and Budget Deficit Threshold Levels on New Fiscal Sustainability Indicator. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(1), 97–116.

Chatterjee, B. S., & Eyigungor, B. (2012). Maturity , Indebtedness , and Default Risk. American Economic Review, 102(6), 2674–2699.

Choirunnisah, H. (2017). Kesinambungan Fiskal dan Estimasi Fiscal Reaction Function Indonesia Tahun 1977-2017. Indonesian Treasury Review, 4(2019), 267–283.

Cole, H. L., & Kehoe, T. J. (2000). Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises. Review of Economic Studies, 67, 91–116.

Corsetti, G., Kuester, K., Gernot, J. M., Bornhorst, F., Bouakez, H., Fatas, A., Lane, P., Laubach, T., & Leigh, D. (2013). Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability Non-financial Corporates. The Economic Journal, 123(2005). https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12013

Darmawan, R., Jenderal, I., Keuangan, K., Putra, H. H., Jenderal, I., Keuangan, K., Fridayanto, R., Jenderal, I., & Keuangan, K. (2022). Predicting Indonesia Sovereign Debt Management’s Risk Occurrence Using Machine Learning Algorithms. Jurnal Info Artha, 6(1), 13–30.

David, Hendartono Kurniawan, A., & Sitanggang Martua, O. (2026). Macroeconomic Determinants of Fiscal Risk in Indonesia. Indonesian Corruption Watch, 11(1), 44–54. Debortoli, D., Nunes, R., & Yared, P. (2016). Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt

Maturity. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1–54.

Dwiputrianti, S., Ardian Putra, B., & Kadelbach, V. (2025). Actionable Insights of Policy on Debt Management Units for Effective Regional Bond and Business Environment: Comparative Study of Indonesia and Mexico. Jurnal Bina Praja, 17(1), 103–119.

Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2023). Yet it Endures : The Persistence of Original Sin. In Open Economies Review (Vol. 34, Issue 1). Springer US. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-022-09704-3

Elisabeth, P., & Sugiyanto, F. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Defisit Anggaran, Belanja Pemerintah Pusat, dan Utang Pemerintah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia Tahun 1990-2019. Diponegoro Journal of Economics, 10, 184–207.

End, J. W. Van Den. (2025). Effects of QE on sovereign bond spreads through the safe asset channel. February 2024, 1143–1162. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2958

Fadila, A., Gumanti Ary, T., & Handriani Eka, J. S. (2026). Threshold Effects Of Foreign Holdings On ASEAN Sorvereign Bond Yields. Indonesian Treasury Review, 11(2), 99–111.

Graeve, F. De, & Mazzolini, G. (2023). The maturity composition of government debt : A comprehensive. European Economic Review, 154(April 2020), 104438. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104438

Greenium, T. H. E., Rethinking, I., Across, G., & Markets, S. (2026). The Greenium Illusion ? Rethinking Greenium Across Borders, Bonds, and Sukuk Markets. Indonesian Treasury Review, 11(2), 140–151.

Greenwood, R., Hanson, S. G., & Stein, J. C. (2015). A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity. The Journal of Finance, LXX(4). https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12253

Hadi, I., Ismal, R., & Handayani, D. (2019). Kajian Ekonomi & Keuangan Apa yang Mempengaruhi Investor Sukuk Negara dalam Menentukan Liquidity Premium ? Kajian Ekonomi Dan Keuangan.

Hariyanto, E. (2006). Efek dan Dampak Kebijakan Debt Switching Terhadap Keuangan Negara. Jurnal Kebijakan Administrasi Dan Administrasi Publik, 10(1), 65–96.

Hatchondo, J. C., Martinez, L., & Padilla Sosa, C. (2010). Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk. Journal of Political Economy, 124(5).

Hauner, D. (2009). Public debt and financial development. Journal of Development Economics, 88(1), 171–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2008.02.004

He, Z., & Xiong, W. E. I. (2012). Rollover Risk and Credit Risk. The Journal of Finance, LXVII(2).

Ikhsan, M. (2021). Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia with Asymmetry. Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 67(1).

IMF. (2014). Revised Guidelines for Public Debt Management.

Kaila, K. S., & Pribadi, Y. (2020). Does Cash Waqf Linked Sukuk Sustain for State Budget Financing After the Covid-19 Pandemic ? Jurnal Manajemen Keuangan Publik, 9(2), 96–113.

Khadziq, M., & Witono, B. (2026). Content Analysis on Fiscal Sustainability and Government Debt Management in Relation to Legal Regulations. Jurnal Economic Resources, 9(1), 1147–1158.

Kiiashko, S. (n.d.). Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity, Fiscal Policy, and Default. Journal of the European Economic Association, 20(5), 2062–2097. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac024

Kunvoro, H. (2011). The Indonesias state budget sustainability and its implication for financial system stability. Romanian Journal of Fiscal Policy (RJFP), 2(1), 36–53.

Kusuma, E. P., Soebagiyo, D., & Hasmarini, M. I. (2025). Analisis Utang Pemerintah terhadap Kebijakan Fiskal di Indonesia 2014-2023. Center of Economic Student Journal, 8(1), 307–317.

Leonardo, D., & Thomas, F. (2024). State Finance and Public Policies Fiscal Sustainability Analysis in Managing State Debt. Indonesian Treasury Review, 9(1), 1–11.

Levine R., and M. C. (2004). Finance and Growth: New Evidence and Policy Analysis for Chile. 18(1829), 65–94.

Lindgren, J. (2021). Examination of Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency. Risks.

Lorenzoni, B. G., & Werning, I. (2019). Slow Moving Debt Crises. American Economic Review, 109(9), 3229–3263.

Maria, Y., & Mudayen, V. (2017). The Impact of Government ’ s Foreign Debt on Fiscal Sustainability of Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 746–751.

Missale, A., Giavazzi, F., & Benigno, P. (2002). How is the Debt Managed ? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations Ã. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 104(3), 443–469.

Mubarak, F., Wulandya, S. A., Seran, K., & Soleh, A. M. (2017). Pemodelan Tingkat Suku Bunga Surat Perbendaharaan Negara 3 Bulan Interest Rate Model of 3-Month Treasury Bill. Kajian Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 1(3).

Mufid, H. A., & Widyawati, D. (2025). Fiscal Sustainability and Country Risk Profile : Empirical Evidence in Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(1), 163–178.

Muktiyanto, I., & Aulia, M. (2019). Determinan Tingkat Imbal Hasil ( Yield ) Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) Domestik. Kajian Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 3(2).

Navarro, M. (2023). Reducing the Philippines Exposure to nterest Rate Volatility.

Niepelt, D. (2014). Debt maturity without commitment. Journal of Monetary Economics, 68, S37–S54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.08.006

Noh, L. (2019). Increasing Public Debt and the Role of Central Bank Independence for Debt Maturities. European Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.07.007

OECD. (2026). Global Debt Report 2026.

Ogbeifun, L., & Shobande, O. (2020). Debt sustainability and the fiscal reaction function : evidence from MIST countries. Future Business Journal, 6(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-020-00037-6

Papaioannou, M. (n.d.). A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks.

Papaioannou, M. G. (2014). Sovereign debt portfolios : risks and liability management operations. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, October. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2011.589626

Papaioannou, M. G., & Trebesch, C. (2012). Restructuring Sovereign Debt : Lessons from Recent History.

Perez, D. J. (2017). Sovereign Debt Maturity Structure Under Asymmetric. Journal of International Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.05.007

Pratama, R. H. (2017). Analisis Perbandingan Portofolio Utang Pemerintah Indonesia Dalam Risiko Pembiayaan Defisit. Jurnal Manajemen Keuangan Publik, 1(2), 11–26. Ramadhan, G., & Simanjuntak, R. A. (2007). Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Dinamika Utang Pemerintah dan Kesinambungan Fiskal di Indonesia Periode 1980-2005 : Suatu Uji Perbandingan Tiga Pendekatan. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 8(1), 1–30. https://doi.org/10.7454/jepi.v8i1.2226

RI, K. K. (2023). Indonesian Treasury Review The Greenium Illusion ? Rethinking Greenium Across Borders (pp. 1–23).

RI, K. K. (2025). Nota Keuangan 2025.

Roch, F., & Uhlig, H. (2018). The dynamics of sovereign debt crises and bailouts. Journal of International Economics, 114, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.05.002 Rusdiyantoro, I., & Simanjuntak, R. A. (2022). Kesinambungan Fiskal Indonesia Pada

Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Pajak Dan Keuangan Negara, 20–29.

Rutkauskas Vytautas, A., Stasytytė, V., & Maknickienė, N. (2013). Government Debt As The Integral Portfolio Of Assets And Liabilities Generated By Debt. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 15(1), 22–40. https://doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2013.815129

Saharani, K. D., Ardiani, D., & Nurcahya, W. F. (2025). Strategi pembiayaan apbn dalam menghadapi ketidakpastian perekonomian global. Journal of Law, Administration, and Social Science, 4(5), 821–834.

Salahudin, M., Ayyubi, A., Mahardika, P., & Saputra, A. (2021). Indonesian government ’ s primary balance and debt. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 24(1), 133–152.

Samsul, E. M., & Indriani, A. (2021). Kebijakan Fiskal dan Moneter Indonesia serta Pengaruhnya terhadap Pasar Domestik di masa Pandemi COVID-19. Jurnal Accounting Information System, 4(2), 46–57.

Wiastanto, D. D. (2018). Evaluasi Penerapan Manajemen Risiko Pada Strategi Pengelolaan Utang Pemerintah Indonesia Periode 2005-2014. Indonesian Treasury Review.

Willems, T., & Zettelmeyer, J. (2022). Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 75–93.

Windoro, M. A., Resmana, A., & Puspita, I. (2025). Domestic Public Debt , Gross Domestic Product , And The Crowding-Out Effect. Indonesian Treasury Review, 10(4), 450–463.

Zwalf, S., & Scott, R. (2022). Article Public Debt : What Measures Should We Use ? A Case Study of Public Debt in Mid - and Post - pandemic Australia and Its Economic , Policy and Social Consequences. The Australian Economic Review, 55(4), 441–460. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12482

Unduhan

Diterbitkan

2026-09-28

Cara Mengutip

Bilateral Debt Switching dalam Pengelolaan Risiko Refinancing Utang Pemerintah Indonesia. (2026). Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan West Science, 5(03), 456-479. https://doi.org/10.58812/jakws.v5i03.3926